Scientists: Prepare For Three Decades Of Global Cooling

[Nostalgia]

One of my favorite new sites is Ice Cap, which publishes scientific reports and data that challenge the theories from the Church of Al Gore/IPCC - and in many cases destroy those theories. I noted a while ago some global warming proponents had come out and forecasted at least another decade of global cooling (after the last decade of global cooling we just went through since the peak warm year of 1998).

Today, Ice Cap featured a report that is predicting 3 decades of global cooling, driven by the well established and documented Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):

Addressing the Washington Policymakers in Seattle, WA, Dr. Don Easterbrook said that shifting of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from its warm mode to its cool mode virtually assures global cooling for the next 25-30 years and means that the global warming of the past 30 years is over. The announcement by NASA that the (PDO) had shifted from its warm mode to its cool mode (Fig. 1) is right on schedule as predicted by past climate and PDO changes (Easterbrook, 2001, 2006, 2007) and is not an oddity superimposed upon and masking the predicted severe warming by the IPCC. This has significant implications for the future and indicates that the IPCC climate models were wrong in their prediction of global temperatures soaring 1°F per decade for the rest of the century.

Unlike the failed predictions from the IPCC, this scientific model is correct because it’s predictions work like clockwork. And its record goes back for some time:



So now we have two opposing views with two opposite predictions (one of which is failing and one of which is coming true already). We will soon learn which was science and which was a cult of fanatics.

http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/5686

[Nostalgia]

But....

Arctic Temps Reach Record Highs

Oct. 16, 2008 -- Autumn temperatures in the Arctic are at record levels, the Arctic Ocean is getting warmer and less salty as sea ice melts, and reindeer herds appear to be declining, researchers reported Thursday.

"Obviously, the planet is interconnected, so what happens in the Arctic does matter" to the rest of the world, Jackie Richter-Menge of the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H., said in releasing the third annual Arctic Report Card.

The report, compiled by 46 scientists from 10 countries, looks at a variety of conditions in the Arctic.

The region has long been expected to be among the first areas to show impacts from global warming, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says is largely a result of human activities adding carbon dioxide and other gases to the atmosphere.

"Changes in the Arctic show a domino effect from multiple causes more clearly than in other regions," said James Overland, an oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle. "It's a sensitive system and often reflects changes in relatively fast and dramatic ways."

For example, autumn air temperatures in the Arctic are at a record 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 Celsius) above normal.

The report noted that 2007 was the warmest year on record the Arctic, leading to a record loss of sea ice. This year's sea ice melt was second only to 2007.

Rising temperatures help melt the ice, which in turn allows more solar heating of the ocean. That warming of the air and ocean affects land and marine life, and reduces the amount of winter sea ice that lasts into the following summer.

The study also noted a warming trend on Arctic land and increase in greenness as shrubs move north into areas that were formerly permafrost.

While the warming continues, the rate in this century is less than in the 1990s due to natural variability, the researchers said.

In addition to global warming there are natural cycles of warming and cooling, and a warm cycle in the 1990s added to the temperature rise. Now with cooler cycles in some areas the rise in temperatures has slowed, but Overland said he expects that it will speed up again when the next natural warming cycle comes around.

Asked if an increase in radiation from the sun was having an effect on the Earth's climate, Jason Box of the Byrd Polar Research Center in Columbus, Ohio, said while it's important, increased solar output only accounts for about 10 percent of global warming.

"You can't use solar to say that greenhouse gases are not a major factor," Overland added.

"This is a very complicated system and we are still working diligently to sort out its mysteries," said Richter-Menge.

In addition to Richter-Menge, Overland and Box, lead authors of the report included Michael Simpkin of NOAA, Silver Spring, Md. and Vladimir E. Romanovsky of the Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, Alaska.

http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/1...peratures.html

[Nostalgia]

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

But....

Arctic Temps Reach Record Highs

http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/1...peratures.html

here is the actual full report.

Noncompos.

It might be a good idea to learn what the PDO is all about ...

Pacific Decadal Oscllation is the monthly average temperature of the Pacific ocean surface, from which the global average temperature has been subtracted (with the purpose of eliminating the effects of global warming).

PDO is one usefull parameter for prediction of seasonal weather, particularly in Alaska and Western U.S. and Canada.

Regional short term business, not global long term change.

[Nostalgia]

Ok, then let's add some information about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Climate Forecasting for North America

Introduction

"Climate" is defined as the statistics of weather, and is often quantified with numbers for things like monthly averaged temperature and precipitation, or the average number of heating degree days in winter, or cooling degree days in summer. As a general rule, important elements of the climate in any region are a moving target, most everyone knows this from their own observations--one year is often warmer than another, or maybe one year sees many more (or less) hurricanes than the next. While the vagaries of climate have often seemed random and unpredictable, recent advances in climate science point to a handful of regularly occurring patterns that impose at least a bit of order in the always variable climate system. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation, for instance, is the best known "natural pattern" of Earth's climate. In addition to El Niño, there are other heavily researched climate patterns that exert important influences on regional climates around the world. For instance, many studies highlight the relative importance of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation in North American climate. Each of these major patterns--El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation--has characteristic signatures in seasonally changing patterns of wind, air temperature, and precipitation; each pattern also has a typical life time for any given "event". Much of the present day skill in the science of climate prediction exploits these signature patterns and typical life times. The remainder of this article is devoted to an overview of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and how it contributes to skillful climate forecasts over the Pacific and North America.

A PDO definition

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in Pacific Basin and North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean.

Two main characteristics distinguish the PDO from ENSO. First, typical PDO "events" have shown remarkable persistence relative to that attributed to ENSO events - in this century, major PDO eras have persisted for 20 to 30 years (Mantua et al. 1997, Minobe 1997). Second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics - the opposite is true for ENSO. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century (e.g. Mantua et al. 1997, Minobe 1997): cool PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while warm PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Recent changes in Pacific climate suggest a possible reversal to cool PDO conditions in 1998, an issue that is discussed in more detail at the end of this article.


Figure 1: (left panel) Characteristic PDO sea surface temperature anomaly pattern. Solid blue contours depict cooler than average temperatures, while dashed red contours reflect warmer than average temperatures. Contour interval is 0.1 degree C. (right panel) .


Figure 2: Characteristic PDO (atmospheric) sea level pressure anomaly pattern. Solid blue contours depict lower than average pressures, while dashed red contours reflect warmer than average pressures. Contour interval is 0.2 millibars.

As is the case with ENSO, characteristic pressure, wind, temperature, and precipitation patterns have been connected with the PDO (Latif and Barnett 1995, Zhang et al 1997, Mantua et al. 1997). The pattern of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variations noted to capture the oceanic part of the PDO is shown in Figure 1, while the pattern of sea level pressures (SLPs) noted to capture the atmospheric part are shown in Figure 2. The SST pattern highlights the strong tendency for temperatures in the central North Pacific to be anomalously cool when SSTs along the coast of North America are unusually warm, and vice-versa (Graham 1994, Miller et al 1995, Zhang et al 1997, Mantua et al 1997). The contour map of SLP anomalies (Figure 2) identifies a wave-like pattern of surface pressure (and wind) anomalies over the North Pacific. Basin-scale drops in SLP centered over the Aleutian Islands are often described as intensifications of the "Aleutian Low" pressure cell, which generally coincide with periods of anomalously high SLPs over western North America and the subtropical Pacific (Trenberth and Hurrel 1994, Graham 1994).


Figure 3: PDO indices based upon projections of observed North Pacific sst and slp patterns onto those shown in Figure 1. Index values are normalized for October to March averages. Solid red lines depict 5-year running average values for each index, respectively.

PDO indices have been constructed by projecting the observed monthly patterns of North Pacific SST and SLP anomalies onto the characteristic SST and SLP patterns shown in Figures 1 and 2, respectively (Trenberth 1990, Trenberth and Hurrell 1994, Zhang et al. 1997, Mantua et al. 1997). When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when SLPs are below average over the North Pacific, the respective indices have positive values. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average SLPs over the North Pacific, the respective indices have negative values.

Winter/spring (October-March) average values for the PDO indices are show with the bar graphs in Figure 3 (SST in the top panel, SLP in the bottom panel). Probably the most notable feature of these indices is the year-to-year persistence that characterizes much of their variability in the 20th century; this long-lived persistence is highlighted by the 5-year running averages of the indices. Negative values in both indices correspond to the cool PDO eras, while positive values are indicative of the warm PDO eras. Within the 20-to-30 year regimes there are several short-lived sign reversals in the indices; these include 3 year reversals from 1959-1961 and again from 1989-1991.


Figure 4: (top) Characteristic warm-phase PDO October-March air temperature anomalies, in degrees C. This field is based on linear regressions between the gridded surface air temperature data and the SST-based PDO index, shown in the top panel of Figure 3, for the period 1900-1993. Contour interval is 0.2 C. (bottom) Contour map of correlation coefficients between gridded North American December-February (DJF) precipitation and the SST-based PDO index, based upon data for the period 1900-93.

[Nostalgia]

The North American climate anomalies associated with PDO warm and cool extremes are broadly similar to those connected with El Niño and La Niña (Latif and Barnett 1995, Latif and Barnett 1996, Zhang et al. 1997, Mantua et al. 1997). Warm phases of the PDO are correlated with North American temperature and precipitation anomalies similar to those correlated with El Niño (Figure 4): above average winter and spring time temperatures in northwestern North America, below average temperatures in the southeastern US, above average winter and spring rainfall in the southern US and northern Mexico, and below average precipitation in the interior Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes regions. Cool phases of the PDO are simply correlated with the reverse climate anomaly patterns over North America (not shown), broadly similar to typical La Niña climate patterns. The PDO-related temperature and precipitation patterns are also strongly expressed in regional snow pack and stream flow anomalies, especially in western North America (see Cayan 1995, Mantua et al. 1997, Bitz and Battisti 1999, Nigam et al. 1999). A summary of major PDO climate anomalies are listed in Table 1.

Table 1: summary of North American climate anomalies associated with extreme phases of the PDO.
climate anomalies

Warm Phase PDO

Cool Phase PDO
Ocean surface temperatures in the northeastern and tropical Pacific
Above average

Below average
October-March northwestern North American air temperatures
above average

Below average
October-March Southeastern US air temperatures
below average

Above average
October-March southern US/Northern Mexico precipitation
Above average

Below average
October-March Northwestern North America and Great Lakes precipitation
Below average

Above average
Northwestern North American spring time snow pack
below average

Above average
Winter and spring time flood risk in the Pacific Northwest
Below average

Above average


[b]Implications for climate predictions[/B

Recent studies suggest that ENSO teleconnections with North American climate are strongly dependent on the phase of the PDO, such that the "canonical" El Niño and La Niña patterns are only valid during years in which ENSO and PDO extremes are "in phase" (i.e. with warm PDO+El Niño, and cool PDO+La Niña, but not with other combinations) (Gershunov and Barnett 1999, Gershunov et al. 1999, McCabe and Dettinger 1999). Other studies have identified PDO connections with summer rainfall and drought in the US (Nigam et al. 1999), and the relative risks for winter and spring flood events in the Pacific Northwest (Hamlet and Lettenmeier, in press).

At the time of this writing, causes for (and predictability limits of) the PDO are not known. What is known is that the nature of the mechanisms giving rise to the PDO will determine whether or not it is possible to make decade-long PDO climate predictions. For example, it has been demonstrated that aspects of ENSO variability are predictable at lead times of at least one year. This time frame is related to the time period that equatorial ocean currents and temperatures need to respond and equilibrate to changes in tropical winds. By analogy, if the PDO arises from air-sea interactions that require 10 year ocean adjustment times, then aspects of the phenomenon will be (in theory) predictable at lead times of up to 10 years.

Even in the absence of a theoretical or mechanistic understanding, PDO climate information provides assistance in improving seasonal climate forecasts for North America. This is true because of the PDO's strong tendency for multi-season and multi-year persistence. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has exploited this facet of North American climate with their "Optimal Climate Normals" (OCN) statistical prediction tool. In the absence of El Niño or La Niña, the PDO provides much of the skill in seasonal climate forecasts for North America. Combining ENSO and PDO information offers improved statistical climate predictions over those based solely upon one of these two important climate patterns (Gershunov and Barnett 1999, Gershunov et al. 1999, McCabe and Dettinger 1999).

The skill in PDO-based forecasts comes from its tendency to persist, thus this skill disappears when there is an unforeseen change in the PDO pattern. Such a change--a flip from warm to cool PDO phases--may have taken place in 1998, coincident with the demise of the 1997/98 El Niño and the beginning of the ongoing La Niña episode. Currently, because no one is certain how the PDO works, it is not possible to say with great confidence that these recent changes in Pacific climate mark the beginning of a 20-to30 year long cool phase of the PDO. Thus, the lack of PDO understanding presents a barrier to both real-time monitoring and forecasting PDO reversals. The research community's ENSO experience showed that improved understanding and predictions came with the synergy of observational, theoretical, and modeling studies (National Academy Press, 1996). Each of these lines of PDO research have been identified as high priorities by the ongoing US CLIVAR program. PDO science is relatively new compared to ENSO science, but insights into the PDO have come at a furious pace in the last decade of the 20th century. More insights into how PDO works, and how to predict PDO variations, are sure to come in the first decade of the 21st century.

References

Bitz, C.C., and D.S. Battisti, 1999: Interannual to decadal variability in climate and the glacier mass balance in Washington, Western Canada, and Alaska. Journal of Climate, 12, 3181-3196.

Cayan, D. R., 1996: Interannual climate variability and snowpack in the western United States. Journal of Climate, 9, 928-948.

Gershunov and Barnett 1998: Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79, 2715-2726.

Gershunov, A., T. Barnett and D. Cayan, 1999: North Pacific interdecadal oscillation seen as factor in ENSO-related north American climate anomalies. EOS, 80, 25-30.

Graham, N.E., 1994: Decadal-scale climate variability in the 1970s and 1980s: observations and model results. Climate Dynamics, 10, 135-159.

Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmeier, 1999: Columbia River Streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals. American society of Civil Engineering, 25, 333-341.

Hare, S.R, and N.J. Mantua, (in press): Empirical indicators for Pacific climate and ecosystem changes, 1965-1997. Progress in Oceanography, in review.

Latif, M. and T.P. Barnett, 1994: Causes of decadal climate variability over the north Pacific and North America. Science 266, 634-637.

Latif, M. and T.P. Barnett, 1996: Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North america: dynamics and predictability. Journal of Climate, 9: 2407-2423.

Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific decadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, pp 1069-1079.

McCabe, G.J. and M.D. Dettinger, 1999: Decadal variations in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western United States. International Journal of Climatology. 19: 1399-1410.

Minobe, S. 1997: A 50-70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 24, pp 683-686.

Minobe, S. 1999: Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific: Role in climatic regime shifts. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 26, pp 855-858.

National Research Council, 1996: Learning to Predict El Niño: Accomplishments and Legacies of the TOGA Program. NationalAcademy Press, 171pp.

Nigam, S., M. Barlow, and E. H. Berbery, 1999: Analysis Links Pacific Decadal Variability to Drought and Streamflow in the United States. EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Vol 80, No. 51, Dec 21 1999.

Trenberth, K.E., 1990: Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the northern hemisphere. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 71, 988-993.

Trenberth, K.E., and J.W. Hurrell, 1994: Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Climate Dynamics 9, 303.

Zhang, Y., J.M. Wallace, D.S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~man...PDO/PDO_cs.htm

Nathan J. Mantua
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans
Climate Impacts Group
University of Washington
Seattle, WA 98195-4235
USA
Email: mantua@atmos.washington.edu

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~man...PDO/PDO_cs.htm

[Nostalgia]

Trends in Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Subjected To Solar Forcing

by
Dr Theodor Landscheidt

Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity
11227 Cabot Trail,
Belle Côte,
Nova Scotia B0E 1C0, Canada

Introduction

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-lived ENSO-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Tanimoto et al., 1993; Zhang et al., 1997). ENSO (El Niño/La Niña + Southern Oscillation) and PDO have similar spatial and temperature patterns, but show a different behaviour in time. While ENSO events are inter-annual phenomena, the PDO covers decades. A full oscillation, comprising a warm and a cool phase, may extend over more than 50 years.

Another dissimilarity is that the primary climatic effects of the PDO concentrate on the North Pacific with only secondary signatures in the tropics, whereas ENSO events dominate the equatorial Pacific and have only secondary effects in other parts of the Pacific (Mantua et al., 1997).

In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as warm or cool, as defined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. The PDO index has positive values when the SST is anomalously warm along the coast of North- and Central America and the equator and cool in the interior North Pacific. The index is negative when the SST pattern is reversed. The PDO then forms a giant horseshoe-shaped arc of warmer-than-normal water off the coast of Japan, enclosing a wedge of cooler-than-normal water near the equator (Trenberth and Hurrell, 1994).

The difference in sea surface temperature, going along with positive or negative PDO regimes, is not more than1° - 2°C, but the affected area is huge. So the temperature changes have a big impact on the climate in North America. The change in the location of warm and cold water in the Pacific alters the path of the jet stream, the conveyor belt for storms across the continent. Wintertime surface air temperature along the Gulf of Alaska, and SST near the coast from Alaska to southern California varies with the PDO (Mantua et al., 1997).

During positive PDO years the annual water discharge in the Skeena, Fraser, and Columbia Rivers is on average up to 14 % lower than during negative PDO years. In contrast, discharge from the Kenai River in the central Gulf of Alaska is on average 18 % higher than during PDO years with negative polarity. The PDO is positively correlated with wintertime precipitation over northern Mexico and south Florida. A negative correlation exists with precipitation over much of the interior of North America and over the Hawaiian Islands (Mantua et al., 1997). Generally, the responses of climate anomalies to warm (positive) and cool (negative) regimes of the PDO are similar to those caused by El Niño and La Niña (Latif and Barnett, 1996).

Alternating preponderance of El Niño and La Niña

There is a noticeable correlation ( |r| = 0.38) between PDO and ENSO. So it seems conceivable that the state of the inter-decadal PDO constrains the envelope of the inter-annual ENSO variability (Mantua et al., 1997). Different periodicities with different underlying processes could be involved. Minobe (1997) has shown that the PDO fluctuations in the 20th century concentrate most of their energy on two different ranges of periodicities from 15 to 25 years and from 50 to 70 years. The first range includes the 22-year cycle of solar activity. So I hypothesize that this cycle is associated with ENSO events such that emerging patterns, covering decades, reflect the rhythm of the 22-year solar cycle.

The true sunspot cycle is the magnetic Hale cycle with a mean length of 22 years. The magnetic
polarities of preceding and following sunspots in each hemisphere reverse in each 11-year cycle so that their return to the original magnetic state is linked to the initial phase of the Hale cycle. Fig. 1 shows the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) based on the main observed variables over the tropical Pacific (Wolter and Timlin, 1998). Initial phases of Hale cycles are marked by arrows. The preponderance of La Niña in the Hale cycle 1954 - 1976 and of El Niño in the following cycle is obvious. This alternating pattern can be traced back to the last decade of the 19th century.



The connection can be evaluated quantitatively by investigating to which degree the MEI means in consecutive Hale cycles deviate from each other while their positive and negative signs form a consistent alternating pattern. A bootstrap analysis based on the t-test yields P < 0.0000001 for the two complete Hale cycles shown in Fig. 1. The sceptical null hypothesis that the MEI means of these cycles show no significant difference can be dismissed. The distributions in the preceding Hale cycles back to the initial phase 1889, too, yield highly significant results, though on a lower level (P < 0.001). This could be due to deteriorating quality of earlier observations.

If the pattern holds, a preponderance of La Niña is to be expected during the Hale cycle that began in 1996. So far, one El Niño is faced with two La Niñas, the second of which is still continuing. A predominance of La Niñas, lasting 22 years, would have a strong effect on global temperature comparable to the cool period in the sixties and early seventies when temperatures were falling in spite of a steep increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide. Predominance of El Niño or La Niña in a Hale cycle does not exclude that isolated strong ENSO events occur which do not belong to the dominant type. The respective state of the PDO may play a role here.

Long solar motion cycles and PDO

Partially, Hale cycles with accumulations of El Niños and warm regimes of the PDO coincide. This also happens with aggregations of La Niñas in Hale cycles and cold regimes of the PDO. A nearly perfect coincidence, however, is the exception. The Hale cycle 1976 - 1996 with predominant El Niños nearly coincides with the warm PDO regime 1977 - 1997, but the warm regime 1925 - 1946, for instance, only partially matches the Hale cycle 1933 - 1954 with prevailing El Niños. Moreover, periodicities around the length of the Hale cycle represent only the first prominent range found by Minobe (1997); the second aggregation falls at the range 50 to 70 years.

So I investigated a potential relationship of the PDO with a long solar motion cycle. Solar motion cycles have been shown to regulate ENSO events, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), extrema in global temperature anomalies, and also droughts, rainfalls, and floods (Landscheidt, 1983, 1990, 1995, 1998 a, 1999 a, 2000 a, 2001). Thus, it is imaginable that they, too, have an effect on the PDO. Mantua (2001) provides standardized values of a PDO index derived from monthly SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean poleward of 20°N. I chose the winter data available for the years 1900 - 1998, as the PDO signal in winter is stronger than in the other seasons. These data were subjected to 20-year moving window Gaussian kernel smoothing (Lorczak) to set off periodicities longer than 20 years.



Fig. 2 shows the result. Maxima of the curve indicate peaks of warm PDO regimes and minima the
coolest phases of cold regimes. The PDO curve is closely connected with a cycle of 35.8 years linked to perturbations in the Sun's motion about the center of mass of the solar system. The rate of change of the Sun's orbital angular momentum - the torque dL/dt driving the Sun's motion - forms a torque cycle with a mean length around 16 years depending on the investigated interval (Landscheidt, 1998 b, 2000 b, 2000 c).

Perturbations in the sinusoidal course of this cycle recur at quasi-periodic intervals and mark zero phases of a perturbation cycle (PC) with a mean length of 35.8 years (Landscheidt, 2000 a). As to details, I refer to Fig. 2 in my on-line paper "Solar Eruptions Linked to North Atlantic Oscillation" (Landscheidt, 2001). The second subharmonic (71.6 years) of the PC comes close to the upper limit of the longer periodicities found by Minobe (1997). In Fig. 2 presented here, the zero phases of PC are marked by green triangles and the label GPTC (Greatest perturbation in torque cycle). Blue triangles labeled LPTC (Least perturbation in torque cycle) mark phases of minimal perturbation.



Another approach to the 35.8-year cycle is presented in Fig. 3. It has been shown that absolute values of the torque cycle (|dL/dt|) form a shorter cycle that plays, e.g., a major role in solar forcing of the North Atlantic Oscillation (Landscheidt, 2001) and discharges in river catchment areas (Landscheidt, 2000 b, 2000 c). When a Gaussian low-pass filter suppressing wavelengths shorter than 9 years is applied to |dL/dt|, new oscillations emerge as shown in Fig. 3 for 1721 - 2077. Minima in the smoothed |dL/dt|-curve are identical with phases GPTC and maxima with phases LPTC. So it is easy to compute the precise dates of these phases. GPTCs fall at 1899.9, 1933.6, 1968.8, and 2007.2. The LPTC dates are 1916.5, 1954.6, 1987.1, and 2025.4. Green circles indicate the initial phases of a long perturbation cycle (LPC) of 178.8 years which is important in solar-terrestrial relations covering centuries. It also indicates potentials for phase reversals, as will be shown.

Before the phase reversal in 1968, marked in Fig. 2 by an arrow, all GPTC phases coincide with maxima and all LPTC phases with minima of the smoothed PDO index. From 1968 on, this relationship is reversed. Due to this phase reversal, the regular negative effect of LPTC 1954.6 was intensified by the additional negative effect of GPTC 1968.8 switching to a reversed polarity. This seems to explain the exceptionally long and strong cold regime observed between 1947 and 1976. LPTC 1987.1, going along with a maximum, confirms the phase reversal. The next minimum (negative cool extremum) is to be expected around 2007.2. It should be less deep than the preceding one. When this forecast is checked in the years around 2007, the data should be processed in the same way as in this investigation.

Phase instabilities in solar-terrestrial cycles pose complicated problems. Many scientists do not even see the phase shift and believe that a clear-cut connection has disappeared though nothing but the sign of the correlation has changed. I have shown that phase reversals or similar instabilities may occur in the 16-year torque cycle or its absolute version, the 8-year |dl/dt|-cycle, when their zero phases coincide with a zero phase GPTC in the 36-year cycle higher up in the hierarchy of solar motion cycles (Landscheidt, 1995, 1998 a, 1998 b, 1999 a, 2000 a) . Zero phases are involved because we have learnt from experimentation with electrical or mechanical control equipment that at nodal points, where the response of the system is zero, the phase can shift by pi radians (Burroughs, 1992).

The phase reversal around 1968 coincides with a zero phase GPTC being part of the perturbation
cycle PC itself. This is not sufficient. If the relationship between the 8-year or 16-year cycle and the 36-year cycle is an indication, phase instabilities in the 36-year PC should occur when there is a coincidence of phases GPTC with special phases in an even longer solar motion cycle. This is the 178.8-year cycle LPC shown in Fig. 3. The current cycle began in 1899.9 and will last till 2078.7. In my paper "Solar forcing of El Niño and La Niña" (Landscheidt, 2000 a) I have shown that the position 0.39 of the sunspot maximum within the 11-year cycle normalized to 1, can be taken as a paradigm of fractals with similar proportions and functions. Phases a and d in the ascending and descending part of the sunspot cycle, indicating ENSO events (Landscheidt, 1999 a, 2000 a, 2001), are apt examples.

In the current long perturbation cycle the point 0.39 falls at 1969.6, just the time of the phase reversal indicated in Fig. 2 and Fig. 4. It coincides with GPTC in the PC. If this is a valid relationship, another phase instability should have occurred around 1900, as this is the date of a zero phase in the long perturbation cycle (LPC). Moreover, phases of instability induced by the LPC should be rare events because of the inter-centennial character of this cycle.

Forecast of regime shifts in PDO

The course of the curve in Fig 2 confirms observations (Mantua, 2000) that a shift from a positive to a negative PDO regime occurred in 1998. Such regime shifts from warm to cold and from cold to warm are of great importance for the climate in the Pacific region and diverse teleconnections. They even have an effect on the behaviour of individual ENSO events. Before 1977, El Niños tended to develop first along the coast of South America and then spread westward. From 1977 on El Niños developed in the central Pacific and spread eastward (Wang, 1995). Observed polarity reversals occurred in 1925, 1947, 1977, and 1998. The first three of these dates were established and confirmed by intervention analysis, an extension of the ARIMA model (Mantua et al., 1997).

Not only the PDO extrema, but also the regime shifts can be read from Fig 2. They are indicated by small arrows pointing upwards (red: shift from cold to warm) or downwards (green: shift from warm to cold). The regime shifts fall just at the midpoint between GPTC and LPTC phases with opposite polarity. The computed dates are 1908.2, 1925.1, 1944.1, 1977.9, and 1997.2. They are rather close to the observed dates 1925, 1947, 1977, and 1998 given in the literature, especially when it is taken into account that the mean interval between regime shifts of the same polarity is 52.9 years. This interval is a main feature as it describes a full cycle of swings from warm to cold and cold to warm and vice versa. Rather close to the length of this cycle, at 52.1 years, emerges the strongest frequency peak in a maximum entropy spectral analysis (Burg algorithm, 40 filter coefficients) of the raw PDO winter data. The second strongest peak at 21.5 years is close to the mean length 21.1 years of the Hale cycle in the investigated period.

Specialists dealing with the PDO emphasize that the causes of this oscillation are not known and that there is no way to see how PDO extrema and especially those abrupt regime shifts from warm to cold or from cold to warm could be predicted (Mantua et al., 1997). This is true only as long as the Sun's dominant role in climate change is ignored. Fig. 2 shows that a forecast is easy. The next regime shift from cold to warm is to be expected around 2016.3, the midpoint between GPTC 2007.2 and LPTC 2025.4.

Geomagnetic index aa and PDO

Sceptics might object that the phase reversal around 1968/1969 is an ad hoc argument not substantiated by further evidence. Fig. 4 shows that this is not true.



I have demonstrated that there is a close connection between energetic solar eruptions on the one hand and ENSO and the NAO on the other (Landscheidt, 1999 a, 2000 a, 2001). So it could be that solar eruptions, too, have an impact on the PDO. Not all strong solar eruptions have an impact on the near-Earth environment. The effect at Earth depends on the heliographic position of the eruption and conditions in interplanetary space. Indices of geomagnetic activity measure the response to those eruptions that actually affect the Earth. Mayaud's aa index (Mayaud, 1973) is homogeneous and covers more than a century.

So I subjected the aa index like the PDO to 20-year moving window Gaussian kernel smoothing (Lorczak) and compared it with the PDO. Fig. 4 shows the result. Filled green and blue triangles mark phases GPTC and LPTC in relation to the brown PDO curve. Open green and blue triangles show how the same phases are related to the blue aa curve. It is obvious that the aa data, too, are affected by the phase reversal, indicated by arrows. After the reversal, there is a close positive correlation (r = 0.98) between aa and PDO which explains 96 % of the variance. Before the phase shift the correlation is negative ( r = -0.68).

It is not quite as strong as the positive correlation, as the aa maximum around 1916.5 and the aa minimum around 1933.6 are not fully developed, though recognizable. This seems to be related to the steep rise of the aa curve between 1900 and the fifties. Bootstrap analysis shows that both of the correlations are significant far beyond the 0.001 level. The high correlation after 1968 shows clearly that contrary to IPCC's Third Assessment Report and recent publications in the literature (Tett et al., 1999) the Sun's impact on climate has been as strong in recent decades as ever. This is confirmed by further investigations covering diverse climate phenomena (Landscheidt, 1998 b, 2000 a, 2000 b, 2000 c, 2000 d).

Outlook

In this early stage of development of a completely new interdisciplinary approach it cannot be expected that there is a detailed physical explanation of the results, especially as the fields of solar activity and climate change have not yet reached the stage of full-fledged theories and the causes of the PDO are still unknown. As to first tentative explanations of the connection between solar eruptions on the one hand and the related oscillations ENSO and NAO on the other I refer to earlier publications (Landscheidt, 1999 a, 2000 a). Forecast experiments are the best way to check whether science is sound. Such forecasts are available for the next crucial phases in the course of the PDO around 2007 (Coolest period in a cool regime) and 2016 (Regime shift from cold to warm). Wait and see will be the procedure in the second part of the experiment.

http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/pdotrend.htm

[Nostalgia]

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Noncompos.

PDO is one usefull parameter for prediction of seasonal weather, particularly in Alaska and Western U.S. and Canada.

Regional short term business, not global long term change.

So as you say, PDO is one useful parameter for prediction of seasonal weather, particularly in Alaska and Western U.S. and Canada, and from reading the information about PDO, is it the possible that these cooling trends in these particular areas below are being caused by a cooling PDO?

Coldest start to winter in Fairbanks, AK in 16 years.

ALASKA IN THE DEEP FREEZE: Interesting SPS from Fairbanks this morning:

NOAK49 PAFG 060945
PNSAFG
AKZ222-062145-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 AM AKDT MON OCT 6 2008

…UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES AT FAIRBANKS…

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WAS 31 DEGREES. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THIS FALL THAT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FAILED TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. ON AVERAGE THE
DATE OF THE FIRST DAY WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING IS
OCTOBER 11TH. SO FAR THIS MONTH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE OF 38
DEGREES WAS OBSERVED ON THE 2ND.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH OF 27.1 DEGREES IS 8.2
DEGREES BELOW THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE. IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST FIRST 5
DAYS OF THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SINCE 1992.

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=11775



Parts of California see coldest temps since 1893...

A record cold snap in Mendocino County over the weekend caused little damage to wine grapes but chilled the hearts of farmers who already have suffered huge losses this year.

"It's just one more thing on top of one more thing. You kind of hold your breath," said Potter Valley wine grape grower Bill Pauli.

Temperatures dropped to 31 degrees in the Ukiah Valley on Saturday night and early Sunday morning, the coldest Oct. 12 morning since record keeping began in Ukiah in 1893, said Troy Nicolini, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Eureka. The previous record was 34 degrees in 1916.

Temperatures were milder in Sonoma County, and there were no reports of frost-related problems, county officials said.

Farmers in Redwood Valley and other cooler regions in Mendocino County reported temperatures as low as 27 degrees.

An estimated 30 percent to 50 percent of that county's wine grape crop had yet to be harvested when the frost hit, killing the tops of unprotected vines and effectively freezing the ripening process.

Most unprotected wine grape crops already had adequate sugar content, so they were unharmed, said Mendocino County Agricultural Commissioner Dave Bengston.

Farmers either sprayed water or turned on wind machines for crops that were not quite ready to harvest, said Redwood Valley farmer Peter Johnson. He said he took frost-protection measures for his cabernet and merlot grapes and expects the return of sunny weather to bump up their sugar content over the next week or two.

Mendocino County wine-grape growers were fearful because they already had lost an estimated 30 percent of their crop to frost in the early spring. The crop also was hit by an early rain that threatened to cause rot, and the region endured a wildfire-choked summer that had the potential to cause smoke damage.

"It'll be nice to get this one put in the barn and put behind us," Pauli said.

Despite the hazardous conditions, Mendocino County's wine-grape crop is looking good, said Paige Poulos, president of the Mendocino Winegrape and Wine Commission.

"We had wonderful fruit, just not enough of it," she said.

Area grape growers are expect to finish harvesting in the next two weeks, sooner if the weather turns cold again.
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article..._grape_growers



Weekend cold set new record lows

The East Oregonian

Monday, October 13, 2008


Cold temperatures set several new record lows this weekend, including a low of 22 Saturday in downtown Pendleton that broke a 118 year-old record of 24.

Record lows started falling Thursday with a new low of 20 for Meacham, four degrees cooler than the previous record from 2006, according to information from the Web site for the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Pendleton.

Heppner and Long Creek then set new low temperatures Friday. Heppner hit 29, the coldest that date has seen since 1960 when it was 30; and Long Creek was 21, besting the 1987 record by four degrees.

Saturday set multiple new lows, including the record 22 in downtown Pendleton. John Day dropped to 21, breaking the 1990 record of 23; Meacham's 15 broke the previous low of 20 from 2002; and Mitchell set a record with 21, five degrees cooler than the 2002 record.

Additionally, the top of Airport Hill in Pendleton set a new low of 25; the previous record was 33. And the agricultural experimental station north of Pendleton recorded a low of 18, five degrees cooler than the previous record from 1990.

The cold continued to set records Sunday. Meacham, for the third time in four days, set a record with a low of 15, one degree cooler than the 2002 record. Long Creek and Mitchell again set new records as well Long Creek's low of 21 broke with 1969 record of 25, and Mitchell's 21 broke the 1949 record of 24.

The top of Airport Hill in Pendleton also set another record with 24; the previous record was 28 from 2002. And downtown Pendleton's 21 chilled past the previous record of 25 from 1931.

Also Sunday, two-miles north of Hermiston cooled to 18, breaking the 1953 record of 20.

Weather this week, however, won't be so chilly as the past few days. Eastern Oregon will have partly sunny to mostly sunny days and high temperatures in the 60s. Overnight lows this week will be primarily in the upper-30s and lower-40s.

Today's highs will be in the mid-60s and overnight lows in the mid-40s. High temperatures will drop to about the lower-60s Tuesday and then to around the mid-50s Wednesday.

Thursday, however, will warm and some cities will have highs in the upper-60s. Temperatures will cool a little going into the weekend, but most area highs will remain in the mid-60s.

Pendleton today will be partly sunny with a high near 66. There also will be a 7 mph southeast wind that will change to west-southwest. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a low near 43 and southwest wind 8-13 mph.

Tuesday will be partly sunny with a high near 61 and west southwest wind between 8-11 mph. Tuesday night will be mostly cloudy with a low around 36 and west-southwest wind around 6 mph.

Wednesday also will be partly sunny but the high will be around 56. There also will be a south wind around 5 mph becoming west. The overnight low will be near 33.

Thursday and Friday will be mostly sunny with a highs 67-67 and overnight lows around 38. Saturday will be partly sunny with a high near 65 and a low around 34. Sunday will be similar, with a high near 64.

Hermiston will be partly sunny today with a high near 66 and a 5-8 mph southwest wind. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a low around 45 and a 9-13 mph west-southwest wind.

Tuesday will be mostly sunny with a high near 62 and an 8-11 mph west-southwest wind. Tuesday night will be partly cloud with a low around 39 and a 6 mph west-southwest wind.

Wednesday will be partly sunny, but the high will be near 59 and there will be a west- southwest wind around 6 mph. Wednesday night will be partly cloudy with a low around 38.

Thursday will warm to about 68 and be mostly sunny. The overnight low will be around 39.

Friday also will be mostly sunny with a high near 65. The night will be mostly cloudy with a low around 43.

Saturday will be partly sunny and the temperature will reach about 67. The night will be mostly cloudy and the low about 38. Sunday will be partly sunny and have a high around 66.

Pilot Rock will be partly sunny today with a high near 63 and a 7 mph south-southeast wind changing to west-southwest. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a low around 42 and west- southwest wind 7-10 mph.

Tuesday will be partly sunny with a high near 58 and 7-9 mph west wind. The night will be mostly cloudy with a low around 41 and a 5 mph west-southwest wind.

Wednesday also will be partly sunny but the high will be near 55 with a south wind at 5 mph becoming west-northwest. Wednesday night will be partly cloudy with a low around 38.

Thursday will be mostly sunny with a high near 65, and that night will be partly cloudy with a low around 38.

Friday will be mostly sunny with a high near 63 and an overnight low around 42. Saturday will be partly sunny with a high around 62 and a nighttime low near 38. Sunday will be partly sunny and reach about 62.

Milton-Freewater will be partly sunny today with a high near 64 and an 8 mph south-southwest wind. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a low around 46 and southwest wind 8-11 mph.

Tuesday will be mostly sunny and reach about 60 with a 7-10 mph southwest wind. Tuesday night will be partly cloudy with a low near 41 and a 6 mph southwest wind.

Wednesday will be partly sunny with a high near 57 and a 5 mph west-southwest wind. That night will be partly cloudy with a low around 39.

Thursday through Saturday will be mostly sunny. Thursday will reach about 67 with an overnight low around 41. Friday will be about 62 and have an overnight low near 44. Saturday will hit about 65 and cool overnight to about 38. Sunday will be partly sunny with a high near 64.

Heppner will be partly sunny today with a high near 64 and an 8 mph southwest wind. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a low around 44 and 9-11 mph west wind.

Tuesday will be partly sunny with a high around 59 and west wind 8-10 mph. Tuesday night will be mostly cloudy with a low around 39 and a 7 mph west-southwest wind.

Wednesday will be partly sunny with a high near 56 and a 6 mph west-southwest wind. Wednesday night will be partly cloudy with a low around 39.

Thursday and Friday will be mostly sunny. Thursday's high will be about 66 and have an overnight low near 39. Friday will hit about 63 and have a nighttime low near 43.

Saturday will be partly sunny with a high near 62 and an overnight low near 36. Sunday will be partly sunny with a low around 36.

http://www.eastoregonian.info/print....85&TM=29612.53


Alaska glaciers grew this year, thanks to colder weather



MASS BALANCE: For decades, summer snow loss has exceeded winter snowfall.

two hundred years of glacial shrinkage in Alaska, and then came the winter and summer of 2007-2008.

Unusually large amounts of winter snow were followed by unusually chill temperatures in June, July and August.

"In mid-June, I was surprised to see snow still at sea level in Prince William Sound," said U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Bruce Molnia. "On the Juneau Icefield, there was still 20 feet of new snow on the surface of the Taku Glacier in late July. At Bering Glacier, a landslide I am studying, located at about 1,500 feet elevation, did not become snow free until early August.

"In general, the weather this summer was the worst I have seen in at least 20 years."

Never before in the history of a research project dating back to 1946 had the Juneau Icefield witnessed the kind of snow buildup that came this year. It was similar on a lot of other glaciers too.

"It's been a long time on most glaciers where they've actually had positive mass balance," Molnia said.

That's the way a scientist says the glaciers got thicker in the middle.

Mass balance is the difference between how much snow falls every winter and how much snow fades away each summer. For most Alaska glaciers, the summer snow loss has for decades exceeded the winter snowfall.

The result has put the state's glaciers on a long-term diet. Every year they lose the snow of the previous winter plus some of the snow from years before. And so they steadily shrink.

Since Alaska's glacial maximum back in the 1700s, Molnia said, "I figure that we've lost about 15 percent of the total area."

What might be the most notable long-term shrinkage has occurred at Glacier Bay, now the site of a national park in Southeast Alaska. When the first Russian explorers arrived in Alaska in the 1740s, there was no Glacier Bay. There was simply a wall of ice across the north side of Icy Strait.

That ice retreated to form a bay and what is now known as the Muir Glacier. And from the 1800s until now, the Muir Glacier just kept retreating and retreating and retreating. It is now back 57 miles from the entrance to the bay, said Tom Vandenberg, chief interpretative ranger at Glacier Bay.

That's farther than the distance from glacier-free Anchorage to Girdwood, where seven glaciers overhang the valley surrounding the state's largest ski area. The glaciers there, like the Muir and hundreds of other Alaska glaciers, have been part of the long retreat.

Overall, Molnia figures Alaska has lost 10,000 to 12,000 square kilometers of ice in the past two centuries, enough to cover an area nearly the size of Connecticut.

Molnia has just completed a major study of Alaska glaciers using satellite images and aerial photographs to catalog shrinkage. The 550-page "Glaciers of Alaska" will provide a benchmark for tracking what happens to the state's glaciers in the future.

Climate change has led to speculation they might all disappear. Molnia isn't sure what to expect. As far as glaciers go, he said, Alaska's glaciers are volatile. They live life on the edge.

"What we're talking about to (change) most of Alaska's glaciers is a small temperature change; just a small fraction-of-a-degree change makes a big difference. It's the mean annual temperature that's the big thing.

"All it takes is a warm summer to have a really dramatic effect on the melting.''

Or a cool summer to shift that mass balance the other way.

One cool summer that leaves 20 feet of new snow still sitting atop glaciers come the start of the next winter is no big deal, Molnia said.

Ten summers like that?

Well, that might mark the start of something like the Little Ice Age.

During the Little Ice Age -- roughly the 16th century to the 19th -- Muir Glacier filled Glacier Bay and the people of Europe struggled to survive because of difficult conditions for agriculture. Some of them fled for America in the first wave of white immigration.

The Pilgrims established the Plymouth Colony in December 1620. By spring, a bitterly cold winter had played a key role in helping kill half of them. Hindered by a chilly climate, the white colonization of North America through the 1600s and 1700s was slow.

As the climate warmed from 1800 to 1900, the United States tripled in size. The windy and cold city of Chicago grew from an outpost of fewer than 4,000 in 1800 to a thriving city of more than 1.5 million at the end of that century.

The difference in temperature between the Little Ice Age and these heady days of American expansion?

About three or four degrees, Molnia said.

The difference in temperature between this summer in Anchorage -- the third coldest on record -- and the norm?

About three degrees, according to the National Weather Service.

Does it mean anything?

Nobody knows. Climate is constantly shifting. And even if the past year was a signal of a changing future, Molnia said, it would still take decades to make itself noticeable in Alaska's glaciers.

Rivers of ice flow slowly. Hundreds of feet of snow would have to accumulate at higher elevations to create enough pressure to stall the current glacial retreat and start a new advance. Even if the glaciers started growing today, Molnia said, it might take up to 100 years for them to start steadily rolling back down into the valleys they've abandoned.

"It's different time scales," he said. "We're just starting to understand."

As strange it might seem, Alaska's glaciers could appear to be shrinking for some time while secretly growing. Molnia said there are a few glaciers in the state now where constant snow accumulations at higher elevations are causing them to thicken even as their lower reaches follow the pattern of retreat fueled by the global warming of recent decades.

http://www.adn.com/news/environment/story/555283.html


http://www.rinf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2472