Iraq report to call for withdrawal

Peter Walker

A much-anticipated US report on future policy in Iraq will recommend the withdrawal of all American combat troops from the country by early 2008, as well as diplomatic overtures to Iran and Syria, US media reported today.

The bipartisan Iraq Study Group (ISG) is due to release its report later today, a day after president George Bush’s new secretary for defence, Robert Gates, told Congress he did not believe the US was currently winning the war in Iraq.

ABC News said it had received leaked extracts of the 142-page ISG report, titled “The Way Forward: A New Approach” and containing a raft of recommendations, some of them contrary to current US policy.

Among the 79 separate conclusions is that Washington should shift the “primary mission” of its troops in Iraq towards a supporting role.

“It’s clear Iraqi government will need US assistance for some time to come, especially in carrying out new security responsibilities,” ABC quoted the report as saying.

“Yet the United States must not make open-ended commitments to keep large numbers of troops deployed in Iraq.

“The most important questions about Iraq’s future are now the responsibility of Iraqis,” the report adds. “The United States must adjust its role to encourage the Iraqi people to take control.”

The committee, co-chaired by former secretary of state James Baker and former congressman Lee Hamilton, says all US forces not involved in training and support for the Iraqi military could leave the country by “the first quarter of 2008″.

According to the Washington Post, quoting an official familiar with the report, the ISG also recommends Mr Bush should apply pressure on Iraq’s government by threatening to reduce economic and military support if it fails to meet specific targets on security.

The 10-member group - which, ABC said, unanimously agreed on every point - also call for direct talks with Syria and Iran, as well as fresh efforts to deal with the Palestinian issue.

“The United States cannot achieve its goals in the Middle East unless it deals with the Israeli-Arab conflict and regional instability,” ABC quoted the report as saying, adding that talks should include Israel, Lebanon and Palestinian leaders who recognise Israel’s right to exist.

While Mr Bush appears as keen as the ISG to begin withdrawing US troops from Iraq, he is likely to be far less eager to deal with Iran and Syria, something he has thus far rejected.

But with violence in Iraq still seemingly out of control and the political pressure mounting, following last month’s Republican defeats in the midterm elections, the Bush administration is likely to be more open than previously to new ideas.

Illustrating this, Mr Gates - himself a former ISG panel member - marked a sharp break with his predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld - by telling Congress yesterday that “all options are on the table” when it comes to Iraq.

He was twice asked if he thought the US was winning, replying both times: “No, sir.”

The former CIA director said US forces would continue to support the Iraqi military, but said this could be done “with a dramatically smaller number of US forces than are there today”, while arguing that total withdrawal would be a mistake.

“Developments in Iraq over the next year or two will, I believe, shape the entire Middle East and greatly influence global geopolitics for many years to come,” he said.

“The United States will face a slowly but steadily improving situation in Iraq and in the region, or will face the very real risk and possible reality of a regional conflagration.”