Hussein’s death does not alter Bush’s problems

Mark Silva

The execution of Saddam Hussein closes an agonizing chapter in history that began with President Bush’s vow to achieve a “regime change” with the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

Yet the hanging of the longtime Iraqi strongman does not alter the fundamental problems that Bush faces: Reclaiming public support in the U.S. for a war that a majority of Americans now oppose, and charting a convincing course for the victory that Bush vows to achieve before withdrawing U.S. forces.

The White House steadfastly averted any statements of direct satisfaction with either the conviction of or death sentence handed to Hussein. Instead, the president and his advisers portrayed them as signals of achievement by the new judiciary in Iraq.

Functioning courts are fundamental for any new government that would be capable of meeting the standards Bush has set for declaring victory in Iraq.

Over the course of the war, Hussein at times served as a powerful symbol, often affecting Bush’s popularity.

The toppling of the statue of the Iraqi leader as Baghdad fell on April 9, 2003, offered a significant image of hope soon after the invasion that Iraqis welcomed the U.S.-engineered overthrow.

Bush, whose job approval in public opinion polls had peaked at 90 percent after the terrorist assaults of Sept. 11, 2001, saw his approval slump to the 50s by the time of the U.S.-led invasion. But his job approval spiked to 71 percent in the Gallup Poll after the fall of Baghdad.

The capture of the toppled Iraqi leader 38 weeks after the invasion, when Hussein was found hiding in a spider-hole on a farm 10 miles southeast of Tikrit, provided a new but temporary boost for Bush.

Bush’s job approval climbed to 63 percent in the Gallup Poll after the capture of Hussein in December 2003, a level of support the president has not achieved since.

But the potency of Hussein as a factor in American public opinion has been diminished by the fact the Iraqi leader did not prove to pose the threat to the outside world that Bush had maintained Hussein was before the invasion of Iraq.

In the final Gallup Poll of 2006, Bush’s job-approval rested at 35 percent, the lowest level of support for any president midway through his second term since Harry Truman.

While the Hussein execution may bring another temporary boost for Bush, the long-term impact of the war on American public opinion will likely be unchanged.

For Bush, the key to regaining public confidence in his handling of the war is likely to lie in the success of “the new way forward” in Iraq that he promises to spell out with the arrival of the new year.